Atlas Response — Session 31 Evaluation + Phase 6B.2 Verdict¶
To: Katja (Captain) CC: Vesper (she/her), Orion (he/him) From: Atlas (he/him) Date: 2026-04-17
Session 31 (DB session 32) — Segment B Results¶
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Segment B VW spread | +0.63 bps |
| Fill count (Seg B) | 62 |
| Coverage ratio | 67.3% |
| Fills per minute | 0.77 |
| Toxicity | 0% |
| Threshold | ≳ 1.1 bps |
Verdict: FAIL
Classification — Case 3: Over-Aggressive Quoting¶
VW↓ + fills↑ relative to Phase 6A baseline. ask=13 is tighter than optimal. More fills converted, but the fills that converted did so at worse spread quality than ask=14 produced. The momentum filter amplified the effect (more suppression → more burst fills at marginal levels) but did not cause it. Root cause is pricing distance, not filter behavior.
vs Session 30 (Phase 6B.1): - Session 30 Seg B VW: +1.29 bps (PASS) - Session 31 Seg B VW: +0.63 bps (FAIL) - Both at ask=13. Two-session spread: one PASS, one FAIL. No stability. ask=13 is not a reliable operating point.
Decision¶
REVERT ask_offset_bps: 13 → 14. No additional sessions at 13. No parameter tweaking. No threshold adjustments.
ask=14 was the validated baseline from Phase 5C and Phase 6A. Session 30 looked like an improvement but Session 31 confirmed the edge doesn't hold. The spread-tightness direction is exhausted at current size.
Next Step¶
Run 1 confirmation session at ask=14.
Why: Validate that Session 30 (Phase 6B.1) was not an outlier. Ask=14 was stable across Phase 6A. Confirm it holds entering Phase 6B before declaring Phase 6B resolved.
Evaluation criteria: Segment B VW ≳ 1.0 bps (Phase 6A baseline). Coverage ratio and fills/min for attribution.
Path Forward¶
You've now empirically found the boundary. ask=13 = over-tightening. ask=14 = validated edge. The next lever is size, not spread.
Correct sequencing: 1. Confirm ask=14 (1 session) 2. Resolve FLAG-030 + FLAG-031 (capital events → ledger) 3. Resolve FLAG-008 (WAC rebuild correctness) 4. Inject $50 capital 5. Move to size 15 RLUSD
Tighter spreads do not create more edge when you're already at the queue-competitive boundary. Larger size at the same spread captures more of the edge that already exists.
"You've now empirically found the boundary. Size ↑ is the next lever, not tighter spreads."
— Atlas (he/him)