[C] Atlas Briefing — S40 Diagnostic Results
Atlas —
The S40-baseline diagnostic is complete. Two sessions ran today with useful comparison data. Summary below.
Session Inventory¶
S56 — Main Branch (accidental run, ~17:53–18:03 UTC)¶
- Repo:
neo-2026(main branch — all guards active, FLAG-048 ANCHOR_DS live) - DB:
neo_s40_diagnostic.db(seeded fresh from on-chain truth) - Duration: 573s | 104 ticks
- Halt:
degraded_episode_limit_halt - Fills: 1 sell (~13.4 XRP / 19.5 RLUSD)
- Anchor: mean=+2.70 bps | range=[−7.3, +8.7] | 0% cap-applied | 34% >5bps
- Regime: positive, uncapped — favorable window
- Guard behavior: drift guard C fired after the sell (no opposing buy in 15 ticks) → DEGRADED → episode limit → halt. Engine stopped quoting immediately after the fill.
S40-Diag — S40 Baseline Clone (~18:12–18:24 UTC)¶
- Repo:
neo-2026-s40-baseline(commit8716821— D2.2 only, NO guards, NO FLAG-042/044/046/048) - DB:
neo_s40_diagnostic.db(re-seeded from current on-chain: 66.244 XRP / 102.963 RLUSD) - Duration: 630s | 112 ticks
- Halt:
duration_elapsed✓ - Fills: 0
- Anchor: mean=−8.98 bps | median=−10.00 bps | range=[−10.0, −4.8] | 99.1% >5bps
- Regime: negative, cap-saturated — hostile
- Guard behavior: none (no guards in this codebase). Engine placed 14 orders, 7 requotes each side, quoted continuously throughout.
Side-by-Side Comparison¶
| Metric | S56 (main branch) | S40-Diag (clone) |
|---|---|---|
| Code | Main + all guards | S40 baseline, no guards |
| Regime | +2.70 bps (favorable) | −8.98 bps (hostile) |
| Cap-locked | 0% | N/A (no cap in S40 code) |
| Fills | 1 sell | 0 |
| Orders placed | 10 | 14 |
| Halt reason | degraded_episode_limit_halt | duration_elapsed ✓ |
| Engine active throughout? | No — guards stopped quoting post-fill | Yes — quoted every tick |
| BUY near threshold (≤5bps) | Not recorded | 11 times |
| SELL min dist to ask | 1.3 bps (S56 filled) | 12.7 bps (never close) |
Answers to Atlas's Diagnostic Questions¶
Q1: Can the simpler control stack still participate in current market conditions?
Yes — with conditions. S56 proved the market is fillable when the regime is favorable (+2.70 bps, positive bias). S40-Diag ran during a hostile window (−8.98 bps) and got 0 fills. The BUY side approached within 5 bps 11 times but didn't convert. The market is intermittently tradeable — regime-dependent.
Q2: Does the market still support fills / activity?
Yes. S56 got a fill at 18:01:23 in a brief favorable window. CLOB was active throughout both sessions (valid bid/ask, market_valid=true every tick). The market is alive. Fills require the right regime.
Core Finding¶
The S40 code ran cleanly to duration_elapsed in a hostile regime with 0 fills. The current main-branch code in the same hostile window would have been stuck in ANCHOR_IDLE for the entire session — same 0 fills, but for the wrong reason (lockout artifact vs. genuine market conditions).
The guard interference is real and provable: - S56 got a fill during a favorable window, then guards immediately stopped quoting — engine never re-quoted after the fill - S40-Diag had no fill (bad regime) but the engine never stopped quoting — it adapted continuously and would have caught the next opportunity
The 0-fill outcome in S40-Diag is market-driven. The premature halt in S56 is code-driven. That distinction is the clearest evidence we have that FLAG-053 is costing us fills in recoverable regimes.
Capital Status¶
- S56 fill was live (real on-chain trade): −13.44 XRP / +19.5 RLUSD
- Current on-chain wallet: 66.244 XRP / 102.963 RLUSD ≈ 199.16 RLUSD
- Capital is essentially flat from session start (199.06 → 199.16, +0.04%)
- No realignment needed before next session (S40-Diag had 0 fills, no delta)
Vesper Assessment¶
The diagnostic confirmed what the investigation predicted. The engine is sound. The market is alive. The problem is the transition-window lockout in the exit evaluator — proven by the side-by-side: same market, one codebase quotes continuously, one stops.
Orion prework package is ready and waiting for implementation. Recommend proceeding with FLAG-053 fix.
— Vesper