Session Summary — S50 (session_id=53)¶
Session Parameters¶
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Session | S50 |
| session_id | 53 |
| Start time (Z) | ~17:00Z |
| Stop | Manual (SIGINT — Katja) |
| Duration | ~13 min |
| Config | config_live_stage1.yaml |
| DB | neo_live_stage1.db |
Outcome Summary¶
Status: ANCHOR_IDLE PERMANENT — CALIBRATION FAILURE CONFIRMED
0 fills. 184 ticks. Engine was ACTIVE and wanting to quote every single tick (intents_generated: 2 every tick, market_valid: true every tick), but ANCHOR_IDLE blocked all order submission. Anchor error was at the +10 bps cap for ALL 184 ticks.
This session provided the definitive evidence that the anchor is miscalibrated, not that the market was hostile.
Key Metrics¶
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticks | 184 |
| Orders placed | 4 |
| Fills | 0 (buy=0, sell=0) |
| Toxic fills | 0 |
| Buy suppressions (momentum) | 9 |
| Sell suppressions | 0 |
| Anchor mean | +10.00 bps |
| Anchor min | +10.00 bps |
| Anchor max | +10.00 bps |
| Anchor median | +10.00 bps |
| % cap-locked | 100% (184/184 ticks) |
| session_min_dist_to_ask | 16.2 bps |
| Halt reason | Manual SIGINT (Katja) |
Inventory & Capital¶
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Starting inventory | 79.507 XRP / 83.463 RLUSD (post-S48 realignment) |
| Ending inventory | 65.901 XRP / 102.963 RLUSD |
| Total RLUSD equivalent | 196.96 RLUSD |
| Capital change | Flat (no fills, no realignment needed) |
| Truth check at shutdown | OK — delta_xrp=0.000160 (negligible), delta_rlusd=0.0 |
| Realignment required | No |
Note: Inventory numbers show XRP position changed from 79.507 to 65.901 — this reflects the carry-forward from S49, not S50 activity. S50 had zero fills.
Tick-Level CLOB-AMM Data (Final Ticks Before Shutdown)¶
| Timestamp (Z) | AMM price | CLOB mid | CLOB-AMM (bps) | Raw anchor error | Capped at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:06:17 | 1.4308 | 1.4280 | −19.5 | ~+19.5 | +10.0 |
| 17:06:22 | 1.4291 | 1.4274 | −11.9 | ~+11.9 | +10.0 |
| 17:06:45 | 1.4288 | 1.4267 | −14.4 | ~+14.4 | +10.0 |
| 17:06:50 | 1.4288 | 1.4264 | −17.0 | ~+17.0 | +10.0 |
| 17:07:30 | 1.4287 | 1.4264 | −16.3 | ~+16.3 | +10.0 |
Why ANCHOR_IDLE Exit Was Mathematically Impossible¶
The ANCHOR_IDLE exit requires anchor error < recovery_exit_bias_threshold_bps (approximately 4–5 bps) for 30 consecutive ticks.
- Minimum raw CLOB-AMM divergence this session: 11.9 bps
- Cap: 10.0 bps (all ticks)
- Required for exit: <5 bps (approximate) for 30 ticks
There is no condition under which the engine could exit ANCHOR_IDLE during afternoon ET on this pair with current calibration. The structural CLOB-AMM gap exceeds the ±10 bps cap, which itself exceeds the exit threshold. The exit condition cannot be reached regardless of actual market activity.
Evidence That CLOB Was Active and Tradeable¶
intents_generated: 2every tick — engine wanted to quote both buy and sell throughoutmarket_valid: trueevery tick — CLOB health check passed throughout- Spread: 2–9 bps throughout (healthy)
- Active bids and asks visible on xrpl.to orderbook at 17:17Z (after session stopped)
- CLOB mid at shutdown: ~1.4251 RLUSD/XRP with active bids/asks
dist_to_touch_ask_bps = 14–16 bps— sell orders priced too far above best ask (engine would need tighter placement, but this is a quoting strategy issue, not a dead market)
Why This Happened: Calibration Failure¶
The current anchor formula:
Measures the structural CLOB-AMM basis (permanent feature of this pair) plus short-term regime distortion (actual signal). During afternoon ET, the structural basis runs 12–20 bps. With a ±10 bps cap, the engine sees +10.0 bps every tick regardless of actual market conditions.
Compare with S48 (~07:00Z, overnight): anchor mean +2.94 bps, engine ACTIVE, 172 ticks, 15 orders. The overnight structural basis is much smaller (~3–6 bps), so the cap doesn't saturate. Same pair, same formula, different structural baseline.
This is a calibration problem, not a regime problem.
Atlas Ruling¶
Atlas confirmed (Apr 22): The anchor is miscalibrated. The answer to Katja's question is (B): the anchor reference price methodology is picking up the persistent CLOB-AMM divergence as signal when that divergence is structural. Full ruling in 07 Agent Coordination/[C] Atlas Ruling — Anchor Calibration Structural Not Regime.md.
Actions Taken This Session¶
- S50 terminal output analyzed, tick-level CLOB-AMM divergence extracted
- Live CLOB orderbook verified via xrpl.to Chrome tab (17:17Z)
TO_ATLAS_anchor_calibration_question.mdupdated with S50 complete data and mathematical proof of exit impossibility- Atlas ruling received and filed:
07 Agent Coordination/[C] Atlas Ruling — Anchor Calibration Structural Not Regime.md - Vesper calibration memo delivered:
NEO Desk/handoffs/TO_ATLAS_vesper_calibration_memo.md(3 candidate formulations for Atlas ruling) - FLAG-048 (ANCHOR-CALIBRATION) opened
CURRENT_HANDOFF_STATUS.mdupdated[C] Open Flags.mdupdated with FLAG-048CLAUDE.mdupdated with S49/S50 outcomes and ANCHOR-CALIBRATION workstream
Phase 7.4 Status¶
NOT counting toward Phase 7.4 clean session precondition. Session was manually stopped, 0 fills, engine idled throughout.
Phase 7.4 is BLOCKED pending anchor calibration. Sessions under current calibration are not evaluable — anchor behavior during afternoon ET is not interpretable as regime signal. Do not start Phase 7.4 SR Audit until FLAG-048 is resolved.
Next Session¶
HOLD — no next session until Atlas rules on anchor formulation.
Pre-session checklist when ready: - [ ] Atlas ruling received on calibration memo (TO_ATLAS_vesper_calibration_memo.md) - [ ] Anchor formulation selected and implementation scoped - [ ] Orion implements selected formulation (new branch) - [ ] Vesper reviews and approves - [ ] Realignment dry-run (expected near-zero delta — truth check was clean at S50 shutdown) - [ ] Start 2-hour session with corrected anchor
Logged by Vesper (COO) 2026-04-22